Eliminating cervical cancer in Canada
Modelling projections for eliminating cervical cancer
Key takeaways
- Eliminating cervical cancer in Canada by 2040 requires increases in HPV vaccination and HPV primary screening uptake.
- With urgent and immediate action to increase HPV vaccination coverage rates and switch to HPV primary screening, Canada can achieve cervical cancer elimination as early as 2031, according to modelling projections.
- Achieving elimination will require an equity-centred approach that focuses on populations that have been harder to reach building confidence and trust with the community, and introducing more options for access to HPV vaccination and cervical screening, such as HPV self-screening at home.
- All jurisdictions must switch to HPV primary screening by 2035 at the latest to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040. Several provinces have already begun making the switch to HPV primary screening.
Projected age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 females) for cervical cancer by level of HPV vaccination uptake* and level and type of cervical screening, 2015-2050
Legend
● Action plan for the elimination of cervical cancer goal: 90% vaccination, 90% HPV screening
● Status quo vaccination (70%), switch to HPV screening (70%)
● Status quo vaccination (70%) and screening (70% Pap)
● Elimination threshold ● Elimination target year
Modelling projections were run in 2025 using the World Health Organization’s World Standard Population.
* HPV vaccination uptake rates are based on full vaccination against HPV, based on NACI immunization guidelines.
Projected age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 females) for cervical cancer by HPV screening implementation year, 2015-2050
Legend
● 2025 ● 2031 ● 2035 ● Elimination threshold ● Elimination target year
Modelling projections were run in 2025 using the World Health Organization’s World Standard Population. Projections assume an HPV vaccination uptake rate of 70 per cent. HPV vaccination uptake rates are based on full vaccination against HPV, based on NACI immunization guidelines.
Canada needs to act now to increase HPV vaccination and HPV primary screening rates
HPV vaccination and cervical screening have drastically reduced cervical cancer mortality and saved over 66,000 lives across Canada since 1950. To achieve cervical cancer elimination by 2040, continued progress in both HPV vaccination coverage and HPV screening are needed. Updated modelling from OncoSim shows that:
- With improved conditions of 90 per cent vaccination coverage and 90 per cent HPV primary screening across Canada, elimination can be reached by as early as 2031.
- With 70 per cent vaccination coverage and 70 per cent HPV primary screening, elimination can be reached by the mid-2030s.
- With current rates of 70 per cent vaccination coverage and 70 per cent Pap screening, elimination will not be reached until the late 2040s.
Based on these modelling projections, equitable delivery of HPV self-screening and HPV vaccination programs is crucial to achieving elimination goals.
Further OncoSim modelling projected that HPV primary screening must be implemented by 2035 to achieve cervical cancer elimination by 2040, assuming 70 per cent HPV screening and vaccination uptake . Delayed action to implement HPV primary screening lowers the chance of elimination by 2040.
Prince Edward Island could be the first to eliminate cervical cancer in Canada
The system-level programs and policies for HPV vaccination and HPV primary screening that Prince Edward Island has implemented could make it the first jurisdiction in Canada to eliminate cervical cancer. As a leader in vaccination programming and inclusive extended eligibility, Prince Edward Island has achieved over 80 per cent vaccination coverage among 12-year-olds. The province was also the first jurisdiction in Canada to implement province-wide HPV primary screening, which is supporting equitable access to care among all eligible people. By combining efforts to enhance both vaccination and screening rates, Prince Edward Island has achieved a rate of 4.4 cervical cancer cases per 100,000 females – just shy of the goal of 4 cervical cancer cases per 100,000 females.
The biggest successes have to do with our networking and our collaboration together… Making sure that everyone is coming to the table, sharing their experiences, their perspective and making sure everyone is aware of what’s going on so that we can move forward together.”
Marla Delaney, Provincial Cancer Coordinator, Health PEI